How PokéItem estimates the price of a Pokémon card

The two prices shown

In their profile, each user picks which of the two prices values their collection. The default is the PokéItem index. When a card has no index in its language yet, PokéItem shows the lowest Cardmarket listing in that language and, failing that, a fallback price: a neighbouring language's price or the card's overall Cardmarket trend. For Japanese cards, the Cardmarket line is not shown.

Price sources

PokéItem reads prices that are publicly observable on these marketplaces. PokéItem is an independent project, with no ties to Cardmarket, eBay, TCGplayer or PSA.

How the PokéItem index is computed

1. Collection. Every 24 hours, for every card and every language, PokéItem records Cardmarket listings and trend price, eBay completed sales, listings and auctions, and the TCGplayer market price.
2. Conversion. Every price is converted to euros and attached to the right card: the right language, the right variant (reverse holo, 1st Edition, stamped) and the right condition.
3. Weighting. Every signal gets a weight. A completed sale weighs more than a trend price, which weighs more than a listing. A recent sale weighs more than an old one, and ten sales weigh more than a single one.
4. Filtering. PokéItem computes an anchor point, the weighted median of the reliable signals, then discards signals too far from that anchor: a price three times higher or three times lower than the rest does not count.
5. Averaging. The index is the weighted geometric mean of the remaining signals. It is then bounded: as a rule, it does not exceed the price at which the card can actually be bought in Near Mint, and it does not fall below a live auction bid.
6. Smoothing. From one day to the next, the index moves gradually towards its new value. A recent, well-documented sale moves it straight away; an isolated, uncertain signal cannot make it jump.

How much each source weighs

• Completed eBay sales weigh the most: it is the only price somebody actually paid.
• Next come the Cardmarket trend price and the agreement between languages on Cardmarket, then the TCGplayer market price.
• Cardmarket and eBay listings do not push the index up: they act as a ceiling. A seller can ask any price; until somebody pays it, it is not a value.
• A live eBay auction acts as a floor: if somebody is already bidding €80, the card is not worth less.
• An old signal gradually loses weight.

The card's language

Every language has its own price. The French lowest Near Mint listing only comes from listings of French cards in Near Mint, and the PokéItem index is computed separately for each language. When a language has no price of its own yet, the app shows a fallback price, a neighbouring language's price or the card's overall Cardmarket trend, so that the card is not left without a value.

This matters because the gaps are wide: the same card can be worth markedly more in French than in German or in English. PokéItem prices cards in French, English, Italian, German, Spanish and Japanese. For Japanese cards, the PokéItem index draws on international and Japanese marketplaces, converted to euros.

The card's condition

PokéItem uses the Cardmarket condition scale: Near Mint, Excellent, Good, Played and Poor. The price of a condition is derived from the card's Near Mint price, multiplied by a ratio. When the card has enough listings in that condition, the ratio is measured on its own listings, in its own language. Otherwise PokéItem applies an average ratio.

On low-priced cards, the gap between conditions is smaller: shipping costs weigh more than the card's condition.

Expensive cards and vintage cards

An expensive or vintage card rarely sells. PokéItem therefore looks further back for it: 45 to 90 days of sales for a recent card, up to 180 days for a vintage card, and up to a year for a graded card. An old sale keeps a safeguard role: it can stop a fanciful listing from dragging the price, but it no longer drives the index.

Cards with little data

A single sale does not set the price. With no recent signal at all, the card follows the general trend of its set, within narrow limits, with a low confidence level. If no signal comes back for a lasting period, the price disappears rather than being made up.

Graded cards

PokéItem gives a price per grading company (PSA, PCA, BGS and CCC) and per grade. Real, verified sales come before price guides. The ladder stays consistent: for the same card, a PSA 10 is never worth less than a PSA 9, and a graded card is never worth less than the raw card. When scanning, PokéItem also reads the label of slabs from other companies.

Every graded price carries a label: “Real sale”, “1 sale observed” or “Estimate”. A French graded card is priced on the French market when there are enough sales. For PSA, PokéItem also shows the population: the number of copies in each grade.

Sealed products

Boosters, booster boxes, ETBs, collection boxes and tins are tracked by product language: a French booster box and an English booster box have two separate prices. For each product, PokéItem shows the PokéItem index and the Cardmarket price, plus the launch price when it is known. A single listing is not a price: with no other signal, PokéItem publishes no index rather than a fragile figure.

The confidence level

The confidence level does not say whether a card is expensive or rare: it says how far the estimate rests on facts. A low confidence is a prompt to check the price before buying or selling.

When the estimate is uncertain

• Recently released card: in the first days, prices move fast and sales are scarce.
• Card with no recent sale: the index rests on listings and on the trend, and the confidence is low.
• Unnumbered promo, near-identical reprint, stamped card: listings sometimes mix several versions of the same card. PokéItem discards a listing it cannot attach with certainty.
• Reverse holo and 1st Edition: these versions have their own price, often with fewer sales than the regular version.
• Rare Japanese cards: the market is thin and the gaps between sellers are wide.

In all these cases, the confidence level shows it. And if a price looks wrong, the “Report a price” button on the card page sends it to the team in one tap.

How PokéItem checks its prices

PokéItem regularly compares the index with the eBay sales completed afterwards: the median gap, the direction of the error, and the share of cards where the index lands closer to the sale than the Cardmarket trend price.

This measurement has a known limit: eBay and Cardmarket are two different markets. On a €2 card, for example, an eBay sale includes shipping costs that exceed the price of the card. PokéItem therefore reads this measurement as a quality indicator, not as a target to hit at any cost.

What has changed in the method

1. 16 September 2026French graded cards are priced on the French market when there are enough sales, no longer from the US market.
2. 13 September 2026A language's lowest Near Mint listing now only comes from listings in that language: it is no longer copied from another language.
3. 2 September 2026Prices by condition are recalibrated on Cardmarket listings (9,034 listing books measured), replacing ratios drawn from eBay sales.
4. 13 June 2026Launch of the PokéItem index and of prices by condition, with version 2 of the app.

Frequently asked questions about prices

Glossary

Near Mint (NM)

The condition of a nearly new card: no crease, no visible scratch, clean edges and corners.

Lowest listing

The cheapest listing for a card, in a given language and condition.

Trend price

A price published by Cardmarket, based on the card's recent sales.

Completed sale

A sale that was concluded and paid, as opposed to a listing, which is only an asking price.

Slab

The sealed case of a graded card, with its label: company, grade and certificate number.

Population

The number of copies of a card that a grading company has graded, grade by grade.